Wednesday, October 12, 2005

media stocks update

Most media stocks still hit 52 week lows as we speak. My bearish views were laid out here in July when the Street were still bullish.

Currently, media are trading at 8-9x EV/EDITDA, they may or may not get to 5x as I anticipated but they are getting close. I would like to have another round of misses in earnings before venture out in this space.

There are also some catalysts coming into view next year -- Winter olympics, election and costs (newsprint particular) facing easier comps (my bearish view on the economy should propel newsprint cost lower not higher). Those 2 major events still channel majority of its ad spending to traditional newspaper/tv combo, so they should be a nice boost. I can't stress enough that stocks have to be cheap first before one should make any move.

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